(Solved by Humans)-Hello Please assist with Question 1 only. Please help with

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Hello Please assist with Question 1 only. Please help with decision Tree, please build in Excel
Property Purchase Strategy
Glenn Foreman, president of Oceanview Development Corporation, is considering submitting
a bid to purchase property that will be sold by sealed bid auction at a county tax foreclosure.
Glenn?s initial judgment is to submit a bid of $5 million. Based on his experience, Glenn
estimates that a bid of $5 million will have a 0.2 probability of being the highest bid and securing
the property for Oceanview. The current date is June 1. Sealed bids for the property must be
submitted by August 15. The winning bid will be announced on September 1.
If Oceanview submits the highest bid and obtains the property, the firm plans to build and sell a
complex of luxury condominiums. However, a complicating factor is that the property is
currently zoned for single-family residences only. Glenn believes that a referendum could be
placed on the voting ballot in time for the November election. Passage of the referendum would
change the zoning of the property and permit construction of the condominiums.
The sealed-bid procedure requires the bid to be submitted with a certified check for 10 percent of
the amount bid. If the bid is rejected, the deposit is refunded. If the bid is accepted, the deposit is
the down payment for the property. However, if the bid is accepted and the bidder does not
follow through with the purchase and meet the remainder of the financial obligation within six
months, the deposit will be forfeited. In this case, the county will offer the property to the next
highest bidder.
To determine whether Oceanview should submit the $5 million bid, Glenn conducted some
preliminary analysis. This preliminary work provided an assessment of 0.3 for the probability
that the referendum for a zoning change will be approved and resulted in the following
estimates of the costs and revenues that will be incurred if the condominiums are built:

If Oceanview obtains the property and the zoning change is rejected in November, Glenn
believes that the best option would be for the firm not to complete the purchase of the property.
In this case, Oceanview would forfeit the 10 percent deposit that accompanied
the bid.
Because the likelihood that the zoning referendum will be approved is such an important factor
in the decision process, Glenn suggested that the firm hire a market research service to conduct a
survey of voters. The survey would provide a better estimate of the likelihood that the
referendum for a zoning change would be approved. The market research firm that Oceanview
Development has worked with in the past has agreed to do the study for $15,000. The results of
the study will be available August 1, so that Oceanview will have this information before the

August 15 bid deadline. The results of the survey will be a prediction either that the zoning
change will be approved or that the zoning change will be rejected. After considering the record
of the market research service in previous studies conducted for Oceanview, Glenn developed
the following probability estimates concerning the accuracy of the market research information:

Managerial Report
Perform an analysis of the problem facing the Oceanview Development Corporation, and
prepare a report that summarizes your findings and recommendations. Include the following
items in your report:
1. A decision tree that shows the logical sequence of the decision problem
2. A recommendation regarding what Oceanview should do if the market research
information is not available
3. A decision strategy that Oceanview should follow if the market research is conducted
4. A recommendation as to whether Oceanview should employ the market research firm,
along with the value of the information provided by the market research firm.
Include the details of your analysis as an appendix to your report.